WGA Nomination Predictions 2007

First of all, No Country for Old Men, wins the USC Scripter Awards! Yay!

But oh wait. Does that mean anything? Since honoring 84 Charing Cross Road as the first winner of the Scripter Awards back in 1989 (for the year 1988), their winners have only matched up with the Academy's in FOUR occasions:

2001 - A Beautiful Mind
1997 - L.A. Confidential
1995 - Sense and Sensibility
1993 - Schindler's List

They did pretty well in the 90's (3/10 years matched), but they haven't been on a winning streak now that it's the new century. Anyways... does this hurt No Country's chance to win the Adapted Screenplay category at the Oscars? I don't think so. First of all, USC can't get it wrong every time and it's about time they got another one right. Second of all, we'll just have to wait for the WGA Awards now don't we? They have a much, much, much better tracking record.

Here are my predictions (you can see it on the sidebar, too, but for convenience, I shall type it out!)


ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
JUNO - Diablo Cody
Michael Clayton - Tony Gilory
Ratatouille - Brad Bird
Lars and the Real Girl - Nancy Oliver
The Savages - Tamara Jenkins
alt. Eastern Promises - Steven Knight


So. Three potential female nominees, hm? That would be wonderful! But it may not happen. These are what I predict. Juno and Michael Clayton are locks, in my opinion (and in many others'). and Ratatouille is pretty much up there as well. The last two spots are basically open to Lars, Savages, Eastern Promises, and Before the Devil Knows You're Dead. Who knows... even American Gangster might sneak in. or... a suprise nominee? I haven't really got too much to say for this category because it's very much up in the year (save the former 3 that I mentioned).


ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN - Joel & Ethan Coen
There Will Be Blood - Paul Thomas Anderson
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - Ronald Harwood
Atonement - Christopher Hampton
Into the Wild - Sean Penn
alt. Charlie Wilson's War - Alan Sorkin (dear god, please don't let this happen!)


So, I think it's pretty much a concensus with most predictions that these are the five that will go on to get nominated. The Writer's Guilds Nominations will either cement the nominees or derail them a given amount.

No Country is locked in and will NOT be snubbed. Why make such a bold statement? It's just too unbelievable for it not to happen. Everyone would flip out if it did, but it's gotten too much attention already and it is not being left out.

Some people are cautioning the embrace of PT Anderson's There Will Be Blood. But I feel like he should have no worries. The WGA and AMPAS both honored his screenplays for Boogie Nights and Magnolia with nominations so we all know he's a friendly face amongst the five lucky writers. That's why I feel so strongly about predicting him. Then there is Oscar-winning screenwriter Ronald Harwood (The Pianist) who seems like a potentially safe bet. And for some reason, I feel like if any two films were in danger, it is Atonement, this year's perennial snubee!! (hehe) and Sean Penn's Into the Wild. One of these could easily be replaced by Charlie Wilson's War... which, in my opinion, would be a disgrace. Ah well. Here's to finding out tomorrow!